The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth

We discuss the role of omitted variables in the long run empirical modeling of the Italian government growth based on a Wagner's Law framework. We identify a non-spurious long-run relationship between general government expenditure and domestic product only when our Wagner's Law model is enhanced by a measure of bureaucratic power, as a supply-side variable, and by the ratio of local to state expenditure, as an institutional factor that captures the division of competencies between local and central government in allocating public expenditure. This result is independent from the Wagner's Law specification chosen. The persistence profile analysis shows a slow adjustment to equilibrium for the estimated government growth relationship following system-wide shocks, pointing to rigidities and complex functioning of the public sector.     

论公司法的修改与完善

《中华人民共和国公司法》在其实施的七年多时间里 ,对我国的经济发展起到了重要作用。但毋庸讳言 ,其部分条文设计的先天不足及指导思想的偏差 ,使得它与时代的要求还存在着一定的差距。本文从公司的设立条件、独资公司的取舍与规范、公司的治理结构以及如何在公司法中加强诉讼保护等方面 ,对公司法的修改与完善提出了相应的建议 ,以期对我国公司制度的成熟和发展有所裨益     

Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2005–2006

This paper covers the activities of the Economic Analysis Group (EAG) of the Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, during 2005–2006. It describes the economic analysis undertaken by EAG in several important investigations, appellate matters, and other activities as an advocate for competition.The views contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

浅析工程建设领域推行工程担保保证制度

工程建设领域推行工程担保保证制度的必要性，是有利于规范业主行为，保证合同履约，制止无序的竞争、遏止腐败滋生，有利于与国际市场接轨等。实施工程担保保证制度的必要条件，是制定专业法规，培育专业担保公司，全面履行工程担保保证的各项职责。建设市场应推行工程担保保证制度，应认真组织好试点，拟订好试点的目标、内容和方法，选择好试点项目的承包主体。这对于保证我国建设市场的有效运行将起到良好的作用。     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

地方人大重大事项决定权工作机制探索

党的十八大对坚持和完善人民代表大会制度提出了新的更高要求,十八届三中全会作出的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》,特别明确了人大重大事项决定权。鉴于目前地方人大及其常委会的决定权基本虚置的状况,本文探讨了地方人大重大事项决定权的涵义及工作机制,以期健全人大讨论、决定重大事项制度,推进人民代表大会制度理论和实践创新。     

县域经济增长中结构红利的测度及决定 ——基于中国1 820个县面板数据的实证分析

产业结构升级是经济增长的源泉之一。本文基于中国1 820个县的面板数据，采用Translog生产函数估计要素弹性，进而测度县域经济增长中的结构红利，同时构建空间误差计量模型对结构红利的影响因素进行检验。研究结果表明2002-2010年间，结构红利占县域GDP总值的444%，对县域GDP增长的贡献达到了2435%。劳均资本、劳均土地等变量对结构红利有显著影响，本文还发现，在东部、中部、西部三个地区，财政支出占GDP的比重对结构红利都有显著的负向影响。     

Transformational tourism as a hero's journey

Transformational tourism is an emerging form of tourism that deserves better attention from researchers and reviewers. This article provides a better understanding of the phenomenon, its varieties and its different stages, drawing on the metaphor of Campbell's archetypical journey of transformation: hero's journey. Using a phenomenological approach, the article tries to shed some light upon the conditions of the touristic experiences that foster transformation. Eight factors were identified: personal situation, being away doing unfamiliar activities, interaction with people, live the moment, difficulty, setting, reflection and integration. The three stages of the hero's journey (departure, initiation and return) are subsequently applied to describe the transformative travel process. The paper concludes with implications for research and professional practice.     

The living commons of West Tyrol,Austria: Lessons for land policy and land administration

A right of commoners to pastures existed since the Early Middle Ages in Anglo-Saxon England and the European mainland, including Tyrol in Austria. Lowland commons institutions were largely dissolved by the 19th century; however, in the European Alps contiguous commons remain alive. Some two thousand alpine commons institutions are registered in the Tyrolean parcel cadaster and land registry. A specific study of West-Tyrolean commons (known as Agrargemeinschaft or AGMs), framed by Ostrom's design principles is presented. General lessons for land policy and land administration are extracted. An interview period was split between the Inn valley and the Ötztal. Roughly half are considered independent: others are regulated by the Tyrolean Agricultural Authority. Some AGMs hold the full bundle of land rights: others only hold pastoral and forestry rights. AGMs consisted either of a single cadastral parcel or several contiguous parcels. In the Inn valley villages the pastoral commons were owned by the municipalities, while in the researched Ötztal, AGMs are frequently the full owners of the commons. AGM membership ranges between 5 and 60 farm households. The number of livestock units pastured was in most cases stipulated in approved regulations. Alpine commons larger than 200 ha are also hunting-zones: revenue is collected from the lease of hunting rights. Most of the alpine commons are designated and used as ski-zones. Upper portions of two alpine commons in the Ötztal are state protected natural areas. The number of farms with pastoral rights is declining at District and State level. Key lessons for land policy and land administration include: Ostrom's design principles being a precondition rather than a panacea; commons institutions requiring one clear ownership party; both public and collective ownership producing success; publically owned commons requiring a local representative; small membership numbers being preferable; small shareholdings not being preferable; decentralized governance being beneficial; internal democratic elections being beneficial; internal boundary records being superfluous; explicit sanctions being superfluous; mixed economies being acceptable; and geography being a significant influence on the longevity of pastoral commons.